How does Zhongtong go beyond the golden brigade, pass through three dragons, and never return?
In 2013, will the large and medium-sized (more than 6 meters) passenger car industry (hereinafter referred to as the passenger car industry) enter a new era?
The answer is yes. Since 2003, after 10 years of "one pass and three dragons", the end of 2012 was announced. This means that since 2013, the competitive landscape of the Chinese passenger car industry has entered a new era.
Zhongtong Super Golden Brigade has broken through the pattern of three dragons
In 2012, the total sales volume of large and medium-sized coaches (more than 6 meters) in Zhongtong was 12017, with a market share of 6%. The total sales volume of Xiamen Golden Brigade is 10072 units, with a market share of 5%. The total sales volume of Zhongtong Bus exceeded the Golden Trip in 2012, breaking the existing competitive pattern of one-pass and three-dragons (Ankai Bus exceeded the Golden Brigade in 2011, but due to Ankai sales data was generated by Ankai Bus and JAC. Passenger cars were merged and the two companies operated relatively independently. Therefore, the combined sales of the two companies does not represent changes in the industry's competitive landscape.
This transcendence in China Communications has a historic significance. This transcends the pattern of “One-Through Three-Yong†(Yutong, Suzhou Golden Dragon, Xiamen Golden Dragon and Golden Brigade) that ruled the passenger car industry for ten years. For China’s large and medium-sized passenger cars, the first echelon of Chinese passenger cars has always been one-stop and three-drone in the past ten years, and the subsequent ranking of bus companies has constantly changed, but these companies have failed to reach the first echelon. Failed to shake up the market structure of the three dragons.
With the adoption of China Travel through the Golden Brigade, the long-term and stable pattern of the bus industry has been broken and a new competitive landscape is emerging.
Will it be a flash in the pan?
In 2012, the position of the industry changed, and the pattern of one pass and three dragons was broken. Will this trend continue or will it be a flash in the pan?
The author's point of view is that the break in this pattern is not an accidental phenomenon, nor will it be a flash in the pan. Because behind this phenomenon is the embodiment of corporate strength and future potential.
The growth of Zhongtong is not an accidental event. The performance in 2012 is not a sudden outbreak of some marketing policies. In the past ten years, Zhongtong Bus has been steadily improving. During this period, Zhongtong Bus continued to improve through continuous improvement. Its research and development capabilities have been greatly enhanced, the types of vehicles have been increasingly perfected, the performance of large-size passenger cars has gradually improved, the corporate culture has become more mature, and the workforce has become increasingly stable. These all determine the superiority of Zhongtong Bus. Not accidental.
We can see from the chart above that the share of Zhongtong Bus in the passenger car market has increased from 3.36% in 2003 to 5.47% in 2012. What needs to be pointed out is that the promotion of China Tong is not a linear growth. It also means that there are different stages in the development of Zhongtong, sometimes it is a rapid growth, and sometimes it is a smooth adjustment.
The reason why Zhongtong entered the first camp is not accidental. It is due to the strong growth momentum of Zhongtong Bus in emerging markets. Look at the pattern, not only depends on the current figures, but also depends on the future trends. This trend is mainly reflected in the hot market in the future.
School buses, natural gas buses and new energy buses are both the growth points of the passenger car market in 2012 and the most promising market for the future of the Chinese bus industry. And Zhongtong has precisely a strong competitive advantage in these three markets. In 2012, Zhongtong Bus ranks among the top three in the field of new energy buses, natural gas buses and school buses. In the future, along with the continuous improvement of these three market segments, the advantages of Zhongtong Bus should continue to be maintained.
Say it again. The market share of Golden Brigade has dropped from 8.42% in 2003 to 5.06% in 2012. The rate of decline is the fastest in the three dragons.
The 3% decline in the market share of the Golden Brigade can be explained by natural disasters and man-made disasters. The reason why the golden brigade’s market share has fallen so quickly is due to the disagreement among its shareholders caused by its shareholding structure. This makes Golden Brigade miss the golden opportunity for market development; sometimes it allows Golden Brigade to market. It is unresponsive during adjustment and it is difficult to change direction quickly. The empathy of Shen Jincai, the shareholder of Golden Brigade, was aggravated by the gold passenger car in recent years.
Ten years of "one pass and three dragons"
Since Zhengzhou Yutong officially became the bus industry leader in 2003, the bus industry has formed a famous pattern of “one pass and three dragonsâ€. The reason why this pattern is famous is that this pattern is remarkable and stable.
The significance is due to the fact that there is a big gap between the second and third tier companies and the top four entrants, and there is a clear watershed. In 2003, the respective market share of the top four companies was above 7.74%, while the market share of the fifth company, the Friendship Bus, was only 5.53%, followed by the “one pass and three dragons†gap between the top four companies and the top four companies. Great disparity. In addition, not only sales, but also in the business management quality, model types, development potential and other aspects have a clear gap.
Stability means that the pattern is stable. For ten years, Yitong Sanlong has always occupied the first camp of the passenger car industry. The second and third camp companies in the bus industry are constantly changing. Some are born, some die, some merge, and some split. The points, but one-on-three dragons have always remained relatively stable (these four companies accounted for about 50% of the bus market's cumulative share for most of the time). It should also be pointed out that although there is no lack of rapid progress and strength in the rear camp, no one company can enter the first camp and disrupt the formation of the first camp.
Therefore, the past decade of the bus industry has been a decade of “one pass and three dragonsâ€.
The future will be several more than a few dragons?
Zhongtong has surpassed Golden Brigade. What will be the future industry landscape? Is the two links two dragons, two links or three dragons, or two dragons?
In fact, from 2003 to 2012, the development of Unicom Three Dragons was unbalanced. Yutong and Suzhou Jinlong have developed steadily, their market share has continued to increase, and their competitiveness has continued to increase. Big Dragon is repeated, and the market performance is also ups and downs. In combination, market share has increased slightly. The market share of Xiaojinlong (Xiamen Golden Brigade) has been declining over the long term.
In the future, Yutong and Suzhou Jinlong should be able to continue their growth. Will Daikin Dragon grow, decline, or maintain a stable market share in the future? Can Ankai and Zhongtong continue to be bullish? Can Zhongtong become a strong force in the first camp? Can Xiao Jinlong stop the bleeding and enter the recovery growth trend? Can the integration of the Ankai bus and the JAC bus be a good one in the competitive landscape?
In addition, can passenger cars in large auto group such as Dongfeng, Zhongqi, Jiefang and Futian enter the state?
With the rise of natural gas and the hot sales of cars, the state’s further trend towards bus regulations, the passenger car industry is undergoing a reshuffle. The new pattern is still unclear.
Because of the difficulty of guessing the results, it is particularly desirable.
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