Engineering machinery heavy truck industry is expected to be good

With the convening of the “two sessions” in various regions, investment growth targets in 2013 and major investment projects such as water conservancy, railways, and urban rail transit are gradually clear, and the long-term driving force of urbanization has again opened up the growth space for construction machinery and heavy truck industries. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the trend of continuous improvement in the industry's economic cycle has continued in the first quarter of this year. Taking into account the lower base in the first quarter of last year, the industry is expected to see a positive year-on-year growth in the first quarter of this year.

The industry's optimism is full of emotions. "This year's feelings are completely different from last year. Last year was a downward trend. We don't know where the bottom lies. This year's production and sales conditions are improving. The entire industry, including the capital market, is showing strong expectations. More up.” A person in charge of the investor relations department of listed companies in construction machinery told China Securities Journal reporter.

This optimistic expectation has been in the industry for some time. At the capital market level, most of the shares of leading listed companies in construction machinery and heavy trucks have risen by more than 40% since the beginning of December last year. Moreover, in the several trading days before the Spring Festival, these stocks also gained about 10%.

Optimistic expectations are expected to spread at the level of related entities. This can be seen from the formulation of various corporate development goals. A person in charge of the company stated that although high-speed and unconventional growth after 2009 will not be reproduced, it will change the trend of the past two years. It is expected that the whole year will return to the normal growth track, and will be cautiously optimistic when setting plans for this year. The growth rate is within 10%. Heavy truck leader China National Heavy Duty Truck Group also proposed 2013 growth rate to ensure 10%, and strive to 12%.

Optimistic expectations also stem from the main tone of economic development in 2013 determined by local governments. In addition to the general direction of urbanization determined by the central government, provincial and municipal governments have also identified the investment plans for key projects this year and years afterwards in the government work report, including a series of infrastructure construction projects such as railways, water conservancy, and rail transit. It will be an indispensable engine for the new government to drive economic growth.

Investing in government work reports in all provinces and municipalities is still the highlight. The goal of investment growth set by several provinces has not been significantly reduced, with more than half of the provinces setting the target above 20%. Even the more developed eastern provinces still emphasize the pulling effect of investment on economic growth. Take Shandong, an economic province, as an example. In 2012, the scale of investment in fixed assets exceeded RMB 3 trillion. On such a large-scale base, the target of fixed asset investment growth of 17% in 2013 was still determined, and the key to the use of investment for economic growth was proposed. The role is to maintain a reasonable increase in investment and infrastructure construction is moderately advanced.

In the first quarter, the year-on-year growth was decisively stronger, and industry insiders introduced that, in fact, when the industry changed in the third quarter and fourth quarter of last year, the bottom has basically emerged. Since the fourth quarter of last year, there has been a gradual improvement from the previous quarter, and the positive energy for recovery has continued to accumulate. Since the first quarter of this year, the production and sales situation has remained at a better level since the fourth quarter of last year.

Order improvement and yield improvement are the most obvious features on the micro level. Some industry sources told the China Securities Journal that the operating rate of a Chinese-foreign joint-venture excavator company has soared recently. Last year, the operating rate of the company was only 30% to 40%, and production was even suspended. In the last two months, the company only arranged one day a week. rest. According to the source, the surge in production was related to the traditional sales season of excavators and distributors' stocks of impulses; on the other hand, investment projects such as water conservancy projects and railway projects will start one after another. Terminal demand will drive sales growth.

A relevant person of a heavy truck production company told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that the company arranged production according to the order situation. In the first two months of this year, production basically remained at a better level since the fourth quarter of 2012. As an important link in the heavy truck industry chain, the output of a well-known domestic engine company also has a relatively large increase recently. Company related personnel told the China Securities Journal that in recent months, sales have maintained a slight increase, the output growth has become more pronounced, and the production growth has been faster. On the one hand, seasonal factors, some products need to be stocked before the Spring Festival, on the other hand, It is also based on the good judgment of the downstream market expectations. A crankshaft production company upstream of the engine also told the China Securities Journal that orders for the past few months have been good, and the capacity utilization rate has also improved by 23% to 30%.

The year-on-year improvement in the first quarter has gradually become clear. The industry believes that the industry has no worries in the short term. On the one hand, the actual demand increases, and some of the machinery products represented by earthmoving machinery are increasing in customer purchases. On the other hand, in the past two years, the middle part of destocking has been affected and optimism has also begun to affect. Inventory process. However, industry insiders also suggested that although the first-quarter growth is relatively positive and the full-year forecast is not worse than that in 2012, the two-month short-term data composites factors such as seasonality and inventory restocking. The industry will return to normal after the Spring Festival. At that time, infrastructure projects will also start one after another, and the performance of the industry will become more meaningful.