LED chip supply is in short supply
In terms of the LED industry cycle, after the deep reshuffle in 2015 and 2016, the supply-side reform is relatively complete, and the LED industry is already in the S-type industry curve. The second wavelength of cattle is opened: From the upstream supply of LEDs, the industry's production capacity is concentrated. Accelerate the improvement, form higher industry barriers, and control the disorderly capacity expansion; at the same time, downstream application innovation drives the industrial chain LED from full competition into a stable growth era, Chinese products go global from the LED industry cycle, after 2015 and 2016 The depth of reshuffle, the supply side reform is relatively full, the LED industry has been in the S-type industry curve, the second wavelength of cattle opening: From the upstream supply of LED, the industry's capacity concentration has accelerated, forming higher industry barriers, curbing disordered production capacity Expansion; at the same time, downstream application innovation drives the industrial chain to flourish. From the current point of view, the accelerated penetration of LED lighting, intelligent networked LED lighting, driving the market space by 1.3 times and the accelerated growth of small-pitch display are becoming the main driving force for the new round of LED industry demand boom. Supply side: In 2016, the newly-increased capacity was contracted and the old model was withdrawn. In 2017, the effective capacity was 83.28 million pieces. As of 2016, the effective capacity was about 1083 units (49 pieces and above), and the corresponding production capacity was about 63 million pieces/year. At present, the 45-49 models (a contract of 1033 k465i 54-chip machines with a production capacity of about 60.24 million pieces/year) are in a weak start, and will be phased out over time. In 2016, overall supply demand remained weakly balanced, and some products were structurally tight. It is understood that in 2017, LED chip leading companies increased by about 345 units (converted Veeco K465i model 54-piece machine). Including the improvement of the old models that purchased some used equipment, the global effective capacity at the end of 2017 reached 83.28 million pieces/year. Demand side: In 2017, the demand for chips will be 92.35 million pieces, an increase of 12.5%. According to estimates, the demand for LED epitaxial wafers will be 92.35 million pieces (converted to 2 pieces) in 2017, among which the demand for lighting chips will increase by 20%; the outdoor full-color display Demand increased by 5% to 26,200,000; indoors with small spacing demanded 1.02 million, 50%; mobile phone backlight required 1.39 million; tablet backlight required 440,000; computer and TV backlight demand: 6.99 million; automotive lighting demand: 1.06 million The film; the other about 8.39 million pieces. In summary, it can be seen that in 2017, the total demand area of ​​chips is estimated at 92.35 million pieces, an increase of about 12.5%. Judging: In 2017, LED chips are in short supply, and they are strongly optimistic about leading enterprises. In summary, at the end of 2017, the effective production capacity of LED chips was about 83.28 million pieces, and the demand was about 92.35 million pieces. We believe that any industry's production capacity is slightly higher than demand is the steady-state characteristics of supply and demand balance, and LED demand is still stable at 12.5% ​​in 2017, so we judge that LED chips are in short supply in 2017. Therefore, we focus on the industry chip leader: Aoyang Shunchang, Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics and so on.
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