· Sany Zhonglian leads the construction machinery to "head up"
As one of the main rebounding sectors since the end of last year, the construction machinery sector has quietly increased by more than 30%; among them, Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH) and Zoomlion (000157.SZ) are the first launchers. The two waves have steadily increased.
Straight Flush data shows that as of February 28, the cumulative increase of the construction machinery sector in the month has reached 8.74%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.10% in the same period, showing a basically simultaneous market.
The reporter learned from a number of leading listed companies that the strength of construction machinery is not only the attraction of low valuation, but also the hard support that the industry fundamentals have improved slightly and the sales of competitive enterprises have rebounded first.
Sales are better than expected
The regulation of property has become stricter, the monetary policy is tight, and the high-speed railway has been slowed down. The series of macro-control policies and emergencies have exerted a gradual impact on the downstream demand of the machinery industry.
Judging from the industrial output value of various industries in the machinery industry, the growth rate of industrial output value has accelerated down since the fourth quarter of 2011. Now, under the situation that the bank's funds are relaxed, is the sales of construction machinery that relies heavily on credit funds improved?
“At present, the company’s sales are recovering, which is related to the overall industry demand is better than last year and the competitive advantage of the company’s products.†According to Sany Heavy Industry’s secretarial office, the demand recovery is mainly in the domestic market, and the better sales are concrete machinery. One piece; and with the restoration of infrastructure, roads and bridges and lines, "the company's concrete machinery market share exceeds 50%, and the current order is not bad."
Zoomlion, which is also the leader of construction machinery, is relatively conservative. The director of the board of directors told reporters that real estate and other regulatory policies have affected the construction machinery industry to a certain extent. “Now there is no thaw in the north, and the traditional off-season is three months ago. The recovery of demand is not obvious.â€
Liugong (000528.SZ) also said, "The current order is OK. But the demand can only be said to be balanced. Now the project is not working enough. Compared with the end of last year, it is not warming up. It is not shrinking. The real warming needs to be seen. Policy direction."
"Actually, the operation of the entire industry of construction machinery has not been as bad as investors have imagined since last year." Liugong related people cited the example, the company does not have a concrete machinery business, and the domestic market performance may not be good for Sany and Zhonglian; But in the international market, especially in emerging markets, such as Europe, India, North and South America.
Judging from the performance forecast of listed companies, the real estate and other control measures that began to affect the second half of last year did not have as much impact on the annual results.
Sany Heavy Industry announced on January 30 that due to steady growth in demand for main products, market share has further increased, sales and profit expectations have increased significantly. It is expected that the net profit attributable to owners of the parent company will be 5.615 billion yuan in 2011, compared with the previous year. Compared with the same period, the growth rate is 50%-60%.
Zoomlion said on January 31 that in 2011, the company continued to launch marketable products, and its profitability continued to increase. The sales revenue increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to reach 7.232 billion. Yuan – 8C81.65 billion yuan.
Bank funds admission
Despite this, there are still many pessimistic factors in the construction machinery industry.
Bank of China International Xu Minle believes that the impact of last year's continued macro-control policies on the downstream demand of the machinery industry is gradually showing up, and this effect will continue in 2012. On the whole, with the gradual slowdown in the growth rate of fixed asset investment, orders from machinery companies have decreased, cash flow has been tight, and industry competition has intensified, and profitability has also been squeezed.
"In the macro-money environment that is still tightening, the fine-tuning of policy relaxation has begun to be realized, but we believe that it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of profitability in the machinery industry in the short-term." Xu Minle said.
However, Zhou Fengwu of Orient Securities pointed out that the demand for construction machinery industry is more relevant to monetary policy; the forward-looking role of M2 in the year-on-year growth rate of construction machinery industry has been continuously verified in recent years, and the worst time in the industry is expected to have passed.
After investigating the South China and East China markets, Changjiang Securities Zhangcheng stressed that from the regional markets surveyed, the demand for concrete machinery was better than expected, the demand for earthmoving machinery was slightly lower than expected, and the overall situation was basically in line with expectations.
Everbright Securities Luzhou is the most optimistic. He said that from the performance in recent years, in the identification of the turning point of the industry, the change in policy expectations has played a decisive role in the investment in the construction machinery industry; now, it is the moment when the policy expectations change.
Lu Zhou said that there is a phenomenon that is crucial: in January of this year, the bank's construction machinery mortgage business saw a sharp decline, which put great pressure on the bank. Under the influence of the issuance of small and medium-sized enterprises debts and the reduction of the deposit rate, the bank's funds face was greatly improved compared with the second half of last year. The loan aspirations were strong and the impulse was obvious.
Under this circumstance, many banks have placed their treasures on the construction machinery mortgage business. In addition to Everbright Bank, which had been operating for many years, banks such as Minsheng, CITIC, Pudong, and Transportation all entered the construction machinery mortgage market.
Therefore, under the situation that the bank's funds are relaxed, "We believe that the fundamentals of the construction machinery industry have seen a better change than expected. At present, we are looking at many construction machinery, and recommend leading companies with active mortgage business and strong product competitiveness: Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion," Lu Zhou stressed.
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