Li Shaoyi: Can Cars Go to the Countryside to Save the Dangerous Card
“As the barometer and the weathervane of the national economy, the heavy-duty truck market has been so low, but it is a problem.†Talking about the trend of commercial vehicles in recent days, the Deputy General Secretary of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association and the Commercial Vehicles Branch will be responsible for Yang Zaiyu was worried.
Since the beginning of this year, the macroeconomic situation has not been optimistic and the society has begun to look forward to a new round of economic stimulus plans. Some local governments even pre-launch investment plans. According to media reports, from the beginning of July to the end of August this year, the local governments of 14 provinces and municipalities nationwide successively released the pulling plans for local industries, investment, and consumption. The cumulative planned investment exceeds 12.8 trillion, which is called the new version of the local edition. The "four trillion" stimulus plan.
Coincidentally, on the occasion that the local version of the “four trillion†plan is still unclear, in recent days, the new round of autos going to the countryside is about to start and it is possible to expand the scope of the subsidy or expand the number of small displacement cars below 1.3 liters. News of heavy trucks quickly spread throughout the industry and became the focus of attention in the capital market.
Many people with heavy-duty trucks such as Dongfeng, Futian, Jiefang, Jianghuai, and Beiben all told the First Financial Daily that they were concerned about whether the new “four trillion†project and whether the subsidy for cars to the countryside would be extended to heavy trucks, but at the same time "There is an excess of heart."
“The 'four trillion' investment project in 2008 and the last time the automobile was used to drive the countryside were very obvious, but it also brought about sequelae. In the past two years, the sales of heavy trucks in China have dropped significantly, and the demand for light trucks is also weak. The side effects brought by the '4 trillion yuan' project." For the recent news about the new "four trillion yuan" and the automobile going to the countryside, industry commentator Yu Chen believes that the automobile to the countryside helps ease the sales pressure of auto companies, but this This kind of stimulus is not conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the industry. It is still a relatively extensive management method. The development of the commercial vehicle market is closely related to the national GDP and should not be blindly stimulated.
Yang Zaiyu also believes that: “A large-scale investment project for the central and local governments is undoubtedly a very encouraging news for the bleak heavy truck market, but there are too many unclear information, and there are limited practical actions for the heavy truck market. ."
“Since October, heavy-duty trucks, like the overall automotive market, have not experienced the traditional peak season of 'golden nine silver ten'. On the contrary, the heavy truck market sold only 42,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year decrease of 30.8%. This shows that China’s market economy It is not optimistic that the performance of China's heavy trucks is a true reflection and vivid portrayal of the current state of economic development.†Yang Zaichen pointed out that the continued economic weakness, the declining real economy, coupled with the constant arrogant oil prices and the burden of various unreasonable taxes, these Reflected in the commercial vehicle market, especially the heavy truck market that is regarded as the national economy “barometer†and “wind vaneâ€, not only continued the trend of decline in 2011, but also accumulated more than 30% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of this year. Therefore, although there are many favorable policy information released at the current market level, the local government's investment plan has a large bubble component. Whether it can bring about the continued growth of the heavy truck market is also very variable. Some of the negative effects of the “four trillion†investment project in 2008 will also become apparent in the next year, with even greater impact on the truck market in the commercial vehicle sector. He believes that in 2013 the overall economic environment and heavy truck companies survived the difficult status quo and market development situation is still grim, not optimistic.
Yu Chen believes that: “The government should do more work on rural informationization to increase the efficiency of the use of rural vehicles. To increase the speed of information circulation, economic development, even if there is no policy, the enthusiasm of farmers to buy a car will remain high Nothing should be done to eat grain.†He pointed out that the government should rationalize the management responsibilities of various departments to prevent multi-headed management and repeated payment by farmers. This work is more conducive to the promotion of peasants' purchase of cars than to the countryside. Enthusiasm is more significant.
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